The UN's Convention on Climate Change (Nov 28-Dec 9) has just ended in Montreal. Many feared the Kyoto Protocol would be weakened, if not even ended, but thanks to Canadian leadership (and a last-minute, unscheduled rouse-to-action speech by Bill Clinton), modest success was achieved. And many think that the US will join, once the fossil-fuel dominated Bush administration is replaced in late 2008.

Environmental groups were pleased with the outcome. "The Kyoto Protocol is stronger today than it was two weeks ago," said Bill Hare, Greenpeace International Climate Policy Advisor in Montreal. "This historic first Meeting of the Parties has acknowledged the urgency of the threat that climate change poses to the world’s poorest people, and eventually, to all of us. The decisions made here have cleared the way for long term action."

There doesn't seem to have been much progress in technology transfer, but issues in developing an effective climate regime after 2012, including background papers on economic development, technology, carbon markets and adaptation (and Canada's long-term energy and climate change future, world energy markets and technology development and implementation) are available on the IISD web-site. The International Institute for Sustainable Development, head-quartered in Winnipeg, organized quite a lot of the innumerable studies and meetings.

It took politicians, diplomats and negotiators the best part of two weeks to try to entice the US to commit itself as much as possible , and huge oppostion was met from Americans, keen on voluntary, non-binding agreements.

To a great exent the Convention was about markets and mechanisms. On the latter, CDM was strengthened somewhat; dissatisfaction wth its 'over-bureaucratization' and slowness in action was met with an increased allocation of $12 million to its Secretariat. Meinhard Doelle, of Dalhousie Law School in Nova Scotia (and author of "From Hot Air to Action? Climate Change, Compliance and the future of International Environmental Law"), etc told PortofEntry: "I would say the most important thing Montreal did for the CDM is to send a clear message that there will be CDM credits after 2012. This will mean CDM investors can count on credits for the long term, perhaps the life of the project, rather than just from date of construction to 2012. There were other changes in terms of making it easier to get CDM projects approved, but I think those changes pale in comparison."

Much discussion also went on, mostly under umbrella of IETA, the International Emissions Trading Association, about carbon trading. As another experienced observer, Alessandro Vitelli, Managing Editor, of Platts Global Emissions told PortofEntry, the Montreal decisions should "help CDM enormously, in that the entire infrastructure now has a legal underpinning, and the commitment to discuss post-2012 commitments under Kyoto gives the market a signal that emissions trading is here for a long time."

This would also help associations active in events and stands in the very large exhibition space, such as those from Panama, and the Caribbean Community Climate Change centre, which organized meetings along with Central America, Mexico, and Cuba. (But it may be worth noting that some observers have grave misgivings about carbon trading, not least because it's not the best way of encouraging innovation in new technologies and other non-fossil-based means. Outside the Convention, in the Climate Justice Centre, bodies such as the Transnational Insitute, and others-- google Carbocracy, CDMWatch, etc.--kept a close eye on matters. And Oilwatch was publicising Costa Rica's fight to preserve its local resources by banning oil drilling: Harken, a company previously owned by George Bush, is suing the country.)

The UK's Environment Minister, Margaret Beckett (who also led the EU's very large and active congingent) emphasised that climate change is good for the market. As Tony Blair said recently, ''UK excellence in science is well documented: we are second only to the U.S. in our share of the world's most cited publications.....A particular strength is the environmental sciences....There are immense business opportunities in sustainable growth and moving to a low carbon economy.'' The business perspective, summed up by one of Canada's biggest companies, the aluminum giant, Alcan is: "the growing global demand for energy services and the need to ensure sustainable development require a continued focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions while providing energy services and ensuring economic growth."

Among the innumerable events inspired by the Convention was McGill University's Trottier Symposium. Amory Lovins, of the Rocky Mountain Institute, believes that "with efficiency improvements and competitive renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, the US can phase out oil use by 2050."

Is such a transition, or transformation, feasible? An article in the magazine Science of August 2004, by two Princeton professors, points out that " Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world's energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration."

REN21 (the Renewable Energy Network for the 21st Century) was just one of many bodies active at the Convention in promoting renewables, in its case along with the German Ministry of the Environment and the EU.

So too were people actually making, using, researching and marketing renewable, alternative technologies . Another parallel event, for instance, was a large, well-attended meeting of the Environmental Markets Association, Canadian Chapter. The Pew Foundation, the most active in the US on climate change, distributed studies such as their 78-page booklet "Towards a Climate-Friendly Built Environment." Another interesting paper on "The Contribution of Bioenergy to a New Energy Paradigm", was presented by Daniel De La Torre Ugarte, of the Agricultural Policy Analysis Center, at the University of Tennessee. The Edinburgh-based World Alliance for Decentralized Energy had a stand too. Among the many companies taking part in the Convention was Fourth Generation Capital Corp, a Nova Scotia-based "CDM project development company and carbon credit financing enterprise" (it's associated with Pact, which for 34 years has been "a networked global organization that builds the capacity of local leaders and organizations to meet pressing social needs in dozens of countries around the world.")

Another organization present, got 25 prominent US economists, including 3 Nobel laureates, to appeal to the US government not to be left behind: Kevin Knobloch, president of the US’s Union of Concerned Scientists, says “An aggressive rollout of energy efficient cars and trucks, appliances, heating and cooling systems and energy technologies will save businesses and consumers significant amounts of money, as well as create high-quality jobs and increase community investment.” Çlean coal, and carbon storage and sequestration will, like other pollution control systems, need design, manufacture, construction and service. Germany, whose GHG emissions are now 19% lower than in 1990, has created 450,000 new jobs in renewable-energy industries. The European Business Council for Sustainable Energy works on “five principles for a sustainable energy future: energy, economy, efficiency, environment, and employment.”

Before the Gleneagles G8 declaration—which George Bush supported—Blair met with international big business. Both sides recognise that the world has to avert the disastrous ecological, economic, and social consequences which will result from global warming of 2 or more degrees Celsius. Business needs as much certainty as possible for planning—power stations, for instance (and China is opening one every two weeks) are not exactly planned overnight: long-time perspectives are required. In the US, as huge firms such as General Electric (GE), Wal-Mart, DuPont cut their GHG emissions, more and more corporate CEOs are calling for the US government to establish mandatory caps on such emissions.

Brazil, India, China and the rest of the developing world aren’t going to make commitments until the rich world clearly admits its historic responsibility for the amount of GHG trapping heat in the atmosphere, and compensates appropriately. The Kyoto protocol seeks to move towards a low-carbon economy (LCE) in various ways: one is a development on ‘the polluter pays’ principle: carbon credits. Quite a bit of the activity in Montreal was devoted to assessing the various existing carbon trading exchanges and how they can be better interlocked and improved.

The huge transformation the world requires means business opportunities, Clinton told the delegates. Among the sea of documentation left by the countless organizations and interest groups, one stood out: December 12’s Business Week magazine’s bold wrap-around cover where the business organization climategroup.org indicated “Carbon Down, Profits Up.” In a special report ‘The Race against Climate Change, the US’s main business newsweekly highlights ‘top green companies’—such as GE.

One new twist, Business Week says, “in the whole discussion of global warming is the arrival of a corps of sharp-pencilled financiers. Bankers, insurers and institutional investors have begun to tally the trillions of dollars in financial risks that climate change poses. They are now demanding the companies which they hold stakes (or insure) add up risks related to climate change and alter their business plans accordingly.” Elsewhere, GE’s Chairman Jeffrey Immelt told UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme) that “we believe that ambition is the key to innovations. As our founder Thomas Edison, said ‘ I find out what the world needs, then I proceed to invent it.’ Today the world needs the thousands of scientists, engineers, and dreamers who are his heirs.”

Yet another simultaneous event was the Fourth Climate Change Summit of World Mayors . Greg Nickels, mayor of Seattle (which is leading in sustainable initiatives by cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent in city authority activities between 1990 and 2001) has got almost 200 city mayors in the US, representing 40 milion people, to appeal to the US to take action, now. Many other cities from around the world came to show their support. Kjell Aleklett, physics professor at Sweden's Upsalla University, is also President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. China, he says, "represents 21% of the world's population and consumes 8% of the world oil production. Will it be able to consume 21% of the world production? I don't believe it."

Canada is the most laggardly of G8 nations in curbing emissions. Global warming is already happening in the Arctic, two to three times as fast as the rest of the world. Like everyone else, Canada has a lot to learn from the UNFCC Convention.

(Full details are available at http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_11/items/3394.php)

*Dr. Alexander Craig is a writer based in Quebec. Formerly Buenos Aires correspondent for the Guardian and other British papers, he then wrote his Ph.D., at Manchester, on the politics of development.